Josh Allen has heard the “great regular-season quarterback” label for years. Jason Garrett wants it retired.
The former Dallas Cowboys head coach, who won three Super Bowls as a player and assistant with Dallas, told Dan Patrick this week that Allen isn’t just going to reach the Super Bowl. He’s going to win more than one. “Josh Allen will win a Super Bowl, and I believe he’s gonna win multiple Super Bowls, and he’s knocking on the door,” Garrett said on The Dan Patrick Show.
Patrick wasn’t ready to hand over the microphone. “I love Josh Allen, but he’s a regular season quarterback,” he shot back. It’s a familiar jab, and Garrett had a rebuttal loaded before Patrick finished the sentence.
Garrett Leans on Elway and Manning to Make His Case
Garrett didn’t dispute Allen’s playoff numbers directly. He went after the premise instead, pulling two Hall of Fame names into the argument. Allen has posted 38 total touchdowns across 15 playoff games, a stretch of production most quarterbacks would sign for in a heartbeat. Garrett skipped past the stat sheet and went straight to history.
“I’d be careful of that,” Garrett said. “For years, they said John Elway is a regular season quarterback. But you and I both know that John Elway put that city of Denver on his shoulders and he carried them there. Then when they got to play in the Super Bowl, they weren’t as good, right?”
Elway lost three Super Bowls before turning 30, then broke through at 37 and won back-to-back titles to close his career. Garrett’s point: the “he can’t win the big one” tag has a habit of aging badly.
He didn’t stop at Elway. Garrett drew a direct line to Peyton Manning, who spent years hearing that his numbers didn’t translate to January.
“Let’s go back 20 years. You’re doing the show and we’re having the same conversation about Peyton Manning,” Garrett said. “God, he throws all these touchdown passes, but in the big games, New England knows how to shut him down. That’s a story that’s been a story for a long time in a lot of different sports. How the guy can’t break through, the guy can’t break through, the guy can’t break through, he’s not good enough, and then he breaks through. The circumstances around him are better, and then he’s able to do that.”
The Manning Comparison Actually Holds Up
Allen turned 30 this past May. He’s entering his ninth NFL season, which happens to be the exact point in Manning’s career when he finally broke through and won it all with the Colts.
The numbers back Garrett up more than the narrative usually gives credit for. Last November, Allen passed Manning’s mark of 288 career touchdowns among players 30 or younger, setting the new benchmark. Allen also carries an 8-7 postseason record into this season, well ahead of where Manning stood at the same stage — Manning opened his career 3-6 in the playoffs before the Colts’ Super Bowl XLI run.
| Category | Josh Allen (Entering Year 9) | Peyton Manning (Entering Year 9) |
|---|---|---|
| Career playoff record | 8-7 | 3-6 |
| Career passing touchdowns (age 30 or younger) | 288 (record) | 288 (previous record) |
| Regular season 2025 stat line | 3,668 yards, 25 TD, 69.3% comp. | — |
| Super Bowl titles at this stage | 0 | 0 |
Allen isn’t just tracking Manning’s timeline. He’s a step ahead of it in the two categories that fuel the “he can’t win the big one” argument in the first place.
Not Everyone Is Buying the Prediction
Garrett’s take didn’t land with everyone. Former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz responded on social media with a blunt line questioning the premise itself: “Can he play in one before he’s going to win multiple Super Bowls?” Schwartz’s reaction was reported by multiple outlets covering the exchange, including Yardbarker. It’s a fair jab — Allen has never reached a Super Bowl, let alone multiple ones, and Buffalo has lost four separate postseason matchups to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs during his tenure.
That history is exactly why the debate keeps resurfacing every summer. Allen has turned the Bills into one of the AFC’s most consistent contenders since Buffalo took him seventh overall in 2018, reaching the AFC Championship Game twice. He’s also walked away from two of the most memorable playoff losses of the last decade, including the 13-seconds collapse against Kansas City in the 2021 divisional round. Fair or not, that game still shadows every conversation about his postseason ceiling.
What Changes This Year
Garrett’s argument leans on a simple idea: quarterbacks who produce at Allen’s level eventually get there once the roster and coaching around them lines up. Manning didn’t suddenly get better in year nine. Indianapolis got deeper, and the matchups broke his way.
Buffalo’s front office spent the offseason chasing the same alignment, retooling pieces around Allen after last season ended in another disappointing exit. Whether that’s enough to finally get the Bills past the Chiefs — or whoever stands between them and the AFC crown this time — is the question that will define the season. One NFL analyst recently framed it as immense pressure on Allen specifically to finish the job, not just get Buffalo back to the doorstep.
The Bills will start finding out soon. Buffalo opens training camp on July 29 at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford, New York, with several roster spots and depth pieces already under the microscope heading into camp.
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